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European Pro League Season 35 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
17%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
20%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
25%
Primal Beast
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
75%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
25%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 4 games
0%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Undyne_ · 3 games
0%

Level UP

Tusk
Tusk
Gilgir · 7 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
pJonn · 5 games
20%
Puck
Puckoften banned
MaTson · 5 games
0%
Pugna
Pugna
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
40%
Slardar
Slardaroften banned
MaTson · 5 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
kur0patbI4 · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Nikobaby · 4 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gilgir · 4 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
643 picks · 818 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
563 picks · 585 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
464 picks · 400 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
458 picks · 303 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
411 picks · 1053 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
385 picks · 688 bans
59%
Mars
Mars
379 picks · 613 bans
47%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiend
370 picks · 976 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)30% vs 39%
Hero pool strength52% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:27
Ilbirs eSports 48%Level UP 52%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 50:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterrubikon155
47% · 304 games49% · 236 games
Windrangerchempik
Windranger
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
57% · 309 games53% · 199 games
UnderlordNorma
Underlord
Chen
ChenUndyne_
50% · 186 games48% · 552 games
Jakiromonodrama
Jakiro
Tidehunter
TidehunterMiyaoo
48% · 220 games45% · 32 games
Earth Spiritlupsione
Earth Spirit
Game 2prediction correct34:45
Ilbirs eSports 47%Level UP 53%
The model gave 53% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 45:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerrubikon155
44% · 208 games52% · 229 games
Shadow Fiendchempik
Shadow Fiend
Void Spirit
Void Spiritniche
45% · 178 games55% · 381 game
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Centaur Warrunner
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMiyaoo
47% · 145 games52% · 190 games
Marcilupsione
Marci
Jakiro
JakiroUndyne_
49% · 394 games55% · 125 games
Undyingmonodrama
Undying
Game 3prediction missed27:5
Ilbirs eSports 48%Level UP 52%
The model gave 52% on Level UP — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 24:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
Broodmotherrubikon155
55% · 46 games54% · 265 games
Shadow Fiendchempik
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
Tinyniche
48% · 447 games54% · 402 games
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsMiyaoo
48% · 414 games45% · 534 games
Tusklupsione
Tusk
Warlock
WarlockUndyne_
47% · 456 games51% · 162 games
Dazzlemonodrama
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 54%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3