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EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 14 games
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
38%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
29%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 21 game
52%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 21 game
38%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 19 games
37%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 16 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
497 picks · 355 bans
52%
Rubick
Rubick
380 picks · 231 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
344 picks · 640 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
336 picks · 346 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 229 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
295 picks · 289 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
295 picks · 395 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 422 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 39%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total54% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:20
Ilbirs eSports 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 48:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritniche
50% · 479 games41% · 355 games
Tinybyun
Tiny
Underlord
UnderlordNorma
50% · 273 games38% · 161 game
DawnbreakerCovisnine
Dawnbreaker
Alchemist
AlchemistKami
56% · 105 games50% · 430 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Bane
BanePonlo
60% · 268 games46% · 123 games
Techiesariel
Techies
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightFernans
61% · 193 games47% · 249 games
RingmasterJANTER
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed26:27
Ilbirs eSports 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 50:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
Linaniche
51% · 22 games62% · 74 games
Lifestealerbyun
Lifestealer
Alchemist
AlchemistKami
54% · 132 games44% · 197 games
Storm Spirityoung G
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordNorma
49% · 342 games47% · 133 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
45% · 212 games51% · 293 games
Hoodwinkariel
Hoodwink
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPonlo
56% · 204 games45% · 215 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Game 3prediction correct33:20
Ilbirs eSports 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 47:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
Invokerniche
51% · 226 games45% · 460 games
Tinybyun
Tiny
Alchemist
AlchemistKami
55% · 130 games52% · 423 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
56% · 474 games46% · 443 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Rubick
RubickFernans
52% · 358 games48% · 191 game
Techiesariel
Techies
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPonlo
53% · 759 games43% · 430 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 54%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3