?
arrow_backBack to match
EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Power Rangerswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ilbirs eSports

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 13 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 9 games
67%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Kami · 8 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
38%
Tiny
Tinysignature
chempik · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
29%

Power Rangers

Tiny
Tinyoften banned
nicky`cool · 37 games
59%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
nicky`cool · 32 games
66%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Alberkaaa · 27 games
44%
Chen
Chensignature
Hduo · 26 games
62%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Immersion · 26 games
65%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Immersion · 24 games
63%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Immersion · 21 game
48%
Rubick
Rubick
Hduo · 16 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
505 picks · 361 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
367 picks · 654 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
354 picks · 199 bans
47%
Bane
Bane
331 picks · 373 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
321 picks · 349 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
311 picks · 449 bans
56%
Windranger
Windranger
310 picks · 232 bans
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
297 picks · 333 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 68%
Hero pool strength52% Power Rangers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total65% Power Rangers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:23
Ilbirs eSports 39%Power Rangers 61%
The model gave 61% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 45:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniche
50% · 346 games49% · 443 games
Tinybashka
Tiny
Beastmaster
Beastmaster423
49% · 284 games54% · 160 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
41% · 142 games52% · 180 games
LargoAlberkaaa
Largo
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPonlo
53% · 273 games50% · 232 games
WindrangerImmersion
Windranger
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
48% · 176 games54% · 206 games
BaneHduo
Bane
Game 2prediction correct13:43
Ilbirs eSports 39%Power Rangers 61%
The model gave 61% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet423
51% · 286 games54% · 251 game
Shadow Fiendbashka
Shadow Fiend
Earthshaker
Earthshakerniche
48% · 211 games49% · 271 game
Centaur WarrunnerAlberkaaa
Centaur Warrunner
Axe
AxeNorma
48% · 363 games46% · 280 games
Storm Spiritkiyotaka
Storm Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerFernans
48% · 412 games51% · 189 games
DisruptorHduo
Disruptor
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernPonlo
50% · 115 games54% · 396 games
HoodwinkImmersion
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct37:34
Ilbirs eSports 41%Power Rangers 59%
The model gave 59% on Power Rangers — the game was taken by Power Rangers in 52:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerniche
57% · 184 games51% · 64 games
NecrophosAlberkaaa
Necrophos
Kez
Kez423
54% · 87 games53% · 128 games
Invokerkiyotaka
Invoker
Doom
DoomNorma
50% · 98 games42% · 78 games
Svenbashka
Sven
Mirana
MiranaPonlo
54% · 50 games47% · 209 games
ClockwerkImmersion
Clockwerk
Dark Willow
Dark WillowFernans
44% · 100 games48% · 40 games
Witch DoctorHduo
Witch Doctor
Model check result
Model favoritePower Rangers · 65%
Series resultPower Rangers 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3