EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
TATeam Aionloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ilbirs eSports
Hoodwink
Ponlo · 12 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 9 games
Ember Spiritsignature
niche · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
chempik · 9 games
Pangolieroften banned
niche · 8 games
Void Spirit
niche · 8 games
Doomoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Team Aion
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 5 games
Bane
Krinzhik · 4 games
Clockwerkoften banned
xsvampire · 4 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 3 games
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
Dazzle
Krinzhik · 2 games
Lina
Mo13ei · 2 games
Ringmaster
Krinzhik · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
494 picks · 354 bans
Rubick
391 picks · 238 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 349 bans
Clockwerk
335 picks · 633 bans
Windranger
318 picks · 231 bans
Pangolier
298 picks · 401 bans
Bane
291 picks · 277 bans
Storm Spirit
286 picks · 306 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Ilbirs eSports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:19
Ilbirs eSports 59%Team Aion 41%
The model gave 59% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 40:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AlchemistKami
Ember SpiritMo13ei
LargoNorma
Snapfirexsvampire
Puckniche
BaneKrinzhik
Dark WillowZayac
HoodwinkPonlo
Game 2prediction correct48:29
Ilbirs eSports 59%Team Aion 41%
The model gave 59% on Ilbirs eSports — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
NecrophosKami
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
DawnbreakerNorma
RingmasterKrinzhik
Puckniche
Clockwerkxsvampire
MiranaZayac
HoodwinkPonlo
Model check result
Model favoriteIlbirs eSports · 66%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2