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Winline Insight Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Illicit teamwin 2:1
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Illicit team

Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
StoneBank · 2 games
0%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
0%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
100%

HF

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Cloud · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
ArrOw · 15 games
73%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Cloud · 13 games
54%
Puck
Pucksignature
hAze · 13 games
62%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
TA2000 · 12 games
50%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Kaori · 12 games
58%
Tiny
Tiny
TA2000 · 12 games
42%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Cloud · 11 games
55%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
736 picks · 569 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
510 picks · 1034 bans
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
486 picks · 634 bans
45%
Marci
Marci
452 picks · 796 bans
52%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
375 picks · 415 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 164 bans
49%
Zeus
Zeus
328 picks · 385 bans
46%
Razor
Razor
310 picks · 590 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 47%
Hero pool strength59% HF
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:25
Illicit team 38%HF 62%
The model gave 62% on HF — the game was taken by HF in 33:07.
Game 2prediction missed35:13
Illicit team 38%HF 62%
The model gave 62% on HF — the game was taken by Illicit team in 31:33.
Game 3prediction missed25:33
Illicit team 38%HF 62%
The model gave 62% on HF — the game was taken by Illicit team in 43:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 62%
Series resultIllicit team 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3