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ESL One Birmingham 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
ILOVESABRINAloss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Yellow Submarinewin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ILOVESABRINA

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
ArrOw · 1 game
0%
Tiny
Tiny
ArrOw · 1 game
0%

Yellow Submarine

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
rue · 11 games
27%
Tusk
Tusk
aik · 11 games
45%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
pJonn · 10 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Satanic · 9 games
56%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rue · 8 games
50%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Puck
Puckoften banned
erase · 8 games
50%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
aik · 8 games
13%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
298 picks · 433 bans
55%
Phoenix
Phoenix
272 picks · 409 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
260 picks · 441 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
227 picks · 206 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
226 picks · 204 bans
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
225 picks · 635 bans
53%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
222 picks · 114 bans
53%
Pangolier
Pangolier
215 picks · 308 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 45%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:38
ILOVESABRINA 49%Yellow Submarine 51%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 37:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckhAze
51% · 108 games49% · 56 games
LunaSatanic
Luna
Lion
LionArrOw
51% · 99 games49% · 93 games
Tinyerase
Tiny
49% · 58 games
Magnusemptiness
Magnus
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 60%
Series resultYellow Submarine 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1