Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Pro Gamingloss 1:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 1:2
HellRaiserswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Imperial Pro Gaming
Clockwerksignature
Muka · 6 games
Earth Spirit
Muka · 5 games
Elder Titan
antoha · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SuperNova · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Chenoften banned
antoha · 3 games
Dark Seeroften banned
SuperNova · 3 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
108 picks · 230 bans
Mars
99 picks · 202 bans
Earth Spirit
91 picks · 72 bans
Void Spirit
80 picks · 139 bans
Phoenix
78 picks · 80 bans
Rubick
66 picks · 33 bans
Undying
64 picks · 85 bans
Wraith King
64 picks · 66 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength58% Imperial Pro Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Imperial Pro Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Imperial Pro Gaming 64%HellRaisers 36%
The model gave 64% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by Imperial Pro Gaming in 32:30.
Game 2prediction missed12:34
Imperial Pro Gaming 64%HellRaisers 36%
The model gave 64% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:18.
Game 3prediction missed16:24
Imperial Pro Gaming 64%HellRaisers 36%
The model gave 64% on Imperial Pro Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 38:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial Pro Gaming · 64%
Series resultHellRaisers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3