Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:0series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 5 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 3 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 3 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Crewmates
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Abaddon
DFlash · 2 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Grimstroke
DFlash · 2 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 2 games
Phantom Assassinoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
247 picks · 513 bans
Void Spirit
227 picks · 278 bans
Mars
205 picks · 378 bans
Earth Spirit
193 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
166 picks · 288 bans
Phoenix
163 picks · 188 bans
Nyx Assassin
162 picks · 515 bans
Wraith King
154 picks · 201 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 31%
Hero pool strength67% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 67%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:0
Series predictioncorrect