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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Crewmatesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 7 games
29%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aretes · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
67%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
40%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
100%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Benjaz · 4 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 4 games
75%

Crewmates

Abaddon
Abaddon
DFlash · 5 games
60%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
25%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 3 games
0%
Io
Iooften banned
FCR · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
100%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
DFlash · 3 games
33%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 3 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
418 picks · 950 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
385 picks · 548 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 711 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
326 picks · 562 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
312 picks · 303 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 214 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 282 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
272 picks · 148 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 42%
Hero pool strength56% Incubus Club
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total63% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:23
Incubus Club 59%Crewmates 41%
The model gave 59% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautBerna
53% · 72 games75% · 4 games
Lone DruidFCR
Lone Druid
Invoker
InvokerBlackSoul
61% · 29 games47% · 149 games
Void SpiritRayuur
Void Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBenjaz
56% · 31 game34% · 73 games
LeshracH1j4ck
Leshrac
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansl4d1n-
61% · 57 games56% · 57 games
Witch DoctorDFlash
Witch Doctor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAretes
44% · 94 games
Game 2prediction correct27:10
Incubus Club 57%Crewmates 43%
The model gave 57% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 30:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBlackSoul
48% · 35 games42% · 29 games
IoFCR
Io
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBerna
51% · 33 games52% · 111 games
PuckRayuur
Puck
Axe
AxeBenjaz
58% · 8 games52% · 18 games
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Centaur Warrunner
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAretes
66% · 49 games41% · 35 games
AbaddonDFlash
Abaddon
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsl4d1n-
47% · 68 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 63%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2