Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:1series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 2 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 1 game
Clockwerk
Nuages · 1 game
Gyrocopter
Benny · 1 game
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
48 picks · 83 bans
Puck
39 picks · 94 bans
Earth Spirit
35 picks · 27 bans
Void Spirit
35 picks · 51 bans
Monkey King
28 picks · 54 bans
Phoenix
27 picks · 37 bans
Undying
25 picks · 50 bans
Ember Spirit
24 picks · 35 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength51% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 54%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:1
Series predictioncorrect