Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubwin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Inverseloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Incubus Club
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Benny · 4 games
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Benny · 2 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Nuages · 2 games
Nature's Prophet
Jupiter · 2 games
Pangolieroften banned
mini-` · 2 games
Inverse
Grimstroke
Slaw · 1 game
Gyrocopter
DM · 1 game
Juggernautoften banned
DM · 1 game
Ogre Magi
Slaw · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
DM · 1 game
Undyingoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
158 picks · 283 bans
Puck
155 picks · 361 bans
Earth Spirit
145 picks · 118 bans
Void Spirit
137 picks · 198 bans
Phoenix
122 picks · 136 bans
Keeper of the Light
106 picks · 195 bans
Nyx Assassin
105 picks · 361 bans
Rubick
102 picks · 53 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength57% Incubus Club
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:21
Incubus Club 58%Inverse 42%
The model gave 58% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 33:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey KingBenny
Wraith KingDM
Linamini-`
GrimstrokeSlaw
Nature's ProphetJupiter
PhoenixNuages
Game 2prediction correct26:9
Incubus Club 58%Inverse 42%
The model gave 58% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 25:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeBenny
GyrocopterDM
Kunkkamini-`
Keeper of the LightSlaw
Sand KingJupiter
Elder TitanNuages
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 62%
Series resultIncubus Club 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2