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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Inversewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 6 games
33%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mini-` · 4 games
75%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
75%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Jupiter · 4 games
75%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Nuages · 3 games
33%

Inverse

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Slaw · 6 games
33%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
DM · 2 games
0%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
DM · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
100%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
DM · 1 game
0%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Slaw · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
441 picks · 968 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
421 picks · 585 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 680 bans
57%
Mars
Mars
345 picks · 597 bans
53%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
315 picks · 285 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
280 picks · 179 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
269 picks · 385 bans
60%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
268 picks · 235 bans
44%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 36%
Hero pool strength62% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:12
Incubus Club 62%Inverse 38%
The model gave 62% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Incubus Club in 24:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBlackSoul
61% · 15 games44% · 124 games
Void SpiritMigi
Void Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackBerna
56% · 17 games54% · 18 games
Legion CommanderArzenT
Legion Commander
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBenjaz
58% · 11 games43% · 37 games
LionSlaw
Lion
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritCys
50% · 78 games
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightAretes
54% · 58 games
Game 2prediction missed29:36
Incubus Club 62%Inverse 38%
The model gave 62% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Inverse in 55:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaBerna
44% · 20 games57% · 46 games
BatriderMigi
Batrider
Invoker
InvokerBlackSoul
45% · 27 games54% · 69 games
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetBenjaz
45% · 35 games58% · 29 games
Elder TitanSlaw
Elder Titan
Mirana
MiranaCys
45% · 54 games
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiAretes
38% · 8 games
Game 3prediction missed15:40
Incubus Club 63%Inverse 37%
The model gave 63% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Inverse in 35:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBlackSoul
57% · 25 games50% · 36 games
KunkkaMigi
Kunkka
Wraith King
Wraith KingBerna
55% · 41 game52% · 46 games
EnigmaArzenT
Enigma
Alchemist
AlchemistBenjaz
46% · 16 games45% · 50 games
Elder TitanSlaw
Elder Titan
Lion
LionCys
49% · 19 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAretes
47% · 31 game
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 73%
Series resultInverse 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3