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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Incubus Clubloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Latam Defenderswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Incubus Club

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aretes · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Jupiter · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Aretes · 6 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Benny · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
BlackSoul · 5 games
80%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Jupiter · 5 games
40%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Nuages · 5 games
100%

Latam Defenders

Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
0%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
415 picks · 943 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
379 picks · 539 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 705 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
329 picks · 545 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
311 picks · 308 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 221 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
281 picks · 155 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 280 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 26%
Hero pool strength59% Incubus Club
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total65% Incubus Club
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:31
Incubus Club 58%Latam Defenders 42%
The model gave 58% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaBerna
41% · 37 games54% · 54 games
WeaverCucahook
Weaver
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBlackSoul
47% · 67 games51% · 52 games
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
Centaur Warrunner
Doom
DoomBenjaz
39% · 9 games61% · 102 games
Nyx AssassinMoonlight
Nyx Assassin
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsl4d1n-
52% · 36 games
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAretes
38% · 59 games
Game 2prediction missed22:30
Incubus Club 59%Latam Defenders 41%
The model gave 59% on Incubus Club — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 29:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterBerna
50% · 16 games54% · 113 games
JuggernautCucahook
Juggernaut
Lina
LinaBlackSoul
50% · 12 games52% · 30 games
Dark SeerValquiria
Dark Seer
Death Prophet
Death ProphetBenjaz
38% · 69 games55% · 103 games
Nyx AssassinMoonlight
Nyx Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsl4d1n-
46% · 79 games
Phoenix
PhoenixAretes
51% · 70 games
Model check result
Model favoriteIncubus Club · 65%
Series resultLatam Defenders 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2