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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 3. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Balrogswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Mirana
Miranasignature
Nuages · 27 games
63%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectoroften banned
Nuages · 18 games
33%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
56%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Hyko · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Mr.Jeans · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
mini-` · 9 games
67%

Balrogs

Rubick
Rubick
Demon · 17 games
59%
Tusk
Tusk
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 12 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
ShakaLord · 11 games
73%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
ShakaLord · 10 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Demon · 9 games
78%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
drakesh1t · 8 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
697 picks · 598 bans
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
557 picks · 490 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
454 picks · 1101 bans
58%
Doom
Doom
447 picks · 800 bans
55%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
405 picks · 1038 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
384 picks · 835 bans
54%
Mirana
Mirana
382 picks · 207 bans
57%
Enchantress
Enchantress
380 picks · 545 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 41%
Hero pool strength53% Balrogs
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:17
Infamous 51%Balrogs 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 40:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
Muertamini-`
41% · 19 games57% · 63 games
PugnaAlone
Pugna
Batrider
Batrider4dr
49% · 203 games51% · 168 games
Monkey KingDM
Monkey King
Mars
MarsHyko
44% · 141 game50% · 431 game
RubickDemon
Rubick
Techies
TechiesJupiter
51% · 156 games46% · 152 games
SilencerShakaLord
Silencer
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorNuages
56% · 295 games
Game 2prediction missed10:23
Infamous 55%Balrogs 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Balrogs in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorblademini-`
55% · 120 games44% · 92 games
Shadow FiendAlone
Shadow Fiend
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit4dr
63% · 76 games35% · 101 game
UrsaDM
Ursa
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerHyko
53% · 79 games39% · 176 games
Crystal MaidenShakaLord
Crystal Maiden
Techies
TechiesJupiter
60% · 95 games53% · 43 games
Spirit BreakerDemon
Spirit Breaker
Pugna
PugnaNuages
62% · 42 games
Game 3prediction missed12:23
Infamous 52%Balrogs 48%
The model gave 52% on Infamous — the game was taken by Balrogs in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunamini-`
58% · 18 games44% · 48 games
Wraith KingDM
Wraith King
Windranger
Windranger4dr
38% · 29 games47% · 154 games
Shadow FiendAlone
Shadow Fiend
Beastmaster
BeastmasterHyko
60% · 71 game56% · 68 games
Spirit BreakerDemon
Spirit Breaker
Rubick
RubickJupiter
48% · 181 game47% · 119 games
LichShakaLord
Lich
Enchantress
EnchantressNuages
52% · 90 games
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 56%
Series resultBalrogs 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3