Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
beastcoastwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Banesignature
Prada · 9 games
Marssignature
Mariano · 8 games
Monkey Kingsignature
PiPi · 8 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Queen of Painoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Tusk
Pamplona · 5 games
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
502 picks · 437 bans
Mars
456 picks · 685 bans
Dragon Knight
428 picks · 538 bans
Bane
409 picks · 288 bans
Pangolier
355 picks · 593 bans
Storm Spirit
347 picks · 570 bans
Chaos Knight
335 picks · 648 bans
Ember Spirit
333 picks · 624 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 45%
Hero pool strength55% Infamous
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total51% beastcoast
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:31
Infamous 49%beastcoast 51%
The model gave 51% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 41:11.
Game 2prediction correct41:20
Infamous 49%beastcoast 51%
The model gave 51% on beastcoast — the game was taken by beastcoast in 37:22.
Model check result
Model favoritebeastcoast · 51%
Series resultbeastcoast 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2