ESL One Raleigh 2025. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 5 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Magnusoften banned
DM · 2 games
Medusaoften banned
DM · 2 games
Blade breakers
Ogre Magi
Accel · 6 games
Chenoften banned
Accel · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Cara · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Accel · 3 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Benjimon · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
bsK7- · 3 games
Alchemistoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
bsK7- · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Muerta
444 picks · 359 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 548 bans
Batrider
368 picks · 469 bans
Lion
366 picks · 191 bans
Gyrocopter
352 picks · 563 bans
Pangolier
352 picks · 587 bans
Phoenix
348 picks · 381 bans
Tusk
347 picks · 374 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Blade breakers
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:37
Infamous 61%Blade breakers 39%
The model gave 61% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 44:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SvenDM
GyrocopterbsK7-
LinaS1RENM
ClockwerkAccel
BeastmasterHermit
Ogre MagiJimmyCoff666
Game 2prediction missed45:34
Infamous 62%Blade breakers 38%
The model gave 62% on Infamous — the game was taken by Blade breakers in 39:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
WeaverDM
BristlebackbsK7-
Queen of PainS1RENM
GyrocopterAccel
TinyHermit
ClockwerkJimmyCoff666
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Infamous 64%Blade breakers 36%
The model gave 64% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 27:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
VisageHermit
TinybsK7-
DawnbreakerDM
Ogre MagiAccel
PangolierS1RENM
GyrocopterJimmyCoff666
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 76%
Series resultInfamous 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3