BTS Pro Series Season 13: Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCCringe Crewloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 5 games
Grimstroke
Prada · 5 games
Hoodwink
Genek · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 5 games
Rubick
Genek · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Mariano · 4 games
Cringe Crew
Pudgeoften banned
Ark · 2 games
Disruptor
The Warden · 1 game
Enigmaoften banned
Sunlight · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Sooths · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Sunlight · 1 game
Sniperoften banned
Sooths · 1 game
Sven
FrancisLee · 1 game
Tusk
FrancisLee · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Marci
374 picks · 578 bans
Tiny
335 picks · 238 bans
Undying
330 picks · 568 bans
Pangolier
245 picks · 330 bans
Enigma
243 picks · 757 bans
Primal Beast
236 picks · 447 bans
Death Prophet
214 picks · 324 bans
Tusk
214 picks · 99 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength65% Cringe Crew
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:33
Infamous 55%Cringe Crew 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightMnz
LeshracSooths
TidehunterOscar
PudgeArk
Miranasl4d1n-
DawnbreakerSunlight
Ancient ApparitionMjz
SnapfireFrancisLee
52% · 82 games
DisruptorThe Warden
Game 2prediction correct39:14
Infamous 53%Cringe Crew 47%
The model gave 53% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 28:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeMnz
MiranaSunlight
DawnbreakerOscar
RikiArk
Treant ProtectorMjz
Ember SpiritSooths
Windrangersl4d1n-
Crystal MaidenThe Warden
53% · 196 games
MarciFrancisLee
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 62%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2