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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
EgoBoyswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pamplona · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 6 games
50%

EgoBoys

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
432 picks · 192 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
387 picks · 570 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
385 picks · 868 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
371 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
346 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
320 picks · 232 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
289 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
281 picks · 382 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Infamous
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total68% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed45:11
Infamous 68%EgoBoys 32%
The model gave 68% on Infamous — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 36:00.
Game 2prediction missed43:15
Infamous 68%EgoBoys 32%
The model gave 68% on Infamous — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 38:57.
Game 3prediction missed11:34
Infamous 68%EgoBoys 32%
The model gave 68% on Infamous — the game was taken by EgoBoys in 42:30.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 68%
Series resultEgoBoys 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3