ESL One Malaysia 2022. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hokoriwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 7 games
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Lumière · 5 games
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
603 picks · 461 bans
Puck
428 picks · 921 bans
Mars
366 picks · 590 bans
Snapfire
355 picks · 183 bans
Dragon Knight
348 picks · 466 bans
Dawnbreaker
341 picks · 388 bans
Bane
319 picks · 199 bans
Ember Spirit
303 picks · 586 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 30%
Hero pool strength50% Hokori
Head-to-head5 – 3
Model total67% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed34:28
Infamous 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 36:24.
Game 2prediction missed53:29
Infamous 67%Hokori 33%
The model gave 67% on Infamous — the game was taken by Hokori in 43:22.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 67%
Series resultHokori 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2