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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Infinity Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 8 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Pamplona · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 5 games
80%

Infinity Esports

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Nuages · 6 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Jupiter · 5 games
60%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
Benny · 4 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
mini-` · 3 games
100%
Luna
Luna
Benny · 3 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 3 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
mini-` · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 1001 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
362 picks · 575 bans
54%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
343 picks · 526 bans
49%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
342 picks · 354 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
334 picks · 177 bans
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
328 picks · 700 bans
54%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 223 bans
51%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
263 picks · 280 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:30
Infamous 55%Infinity Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 27:22.
Game 2prediction missed17:34
Infamous 55%Infinity Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 33:17.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 55%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2