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The International 10. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 1:2
King Of Kingswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Tusk
Tusksignature
Pamplona · 13 games
62%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
ILICH- · 11 games
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Yor · 10 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Pamplona · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yor · 6 games
67%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 6 games
50%

King Of Kings

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
450 picks · 194 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
392 picks · 585 bans
52%
Puck
Puck
391 picks · 888 bans
51%
Snapfire
Snapfire
372 picks · 206 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
348 picks · 324 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
326 picks · 238 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
293 picks · 396 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
291 picks · 402 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 62%
Hero pool strength53% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:19
Infamous 51%King Of Kings 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 37:52.
Game 2prediction missed19:24
Infamous 51%King Of Kings 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 48:43.
Game 3prediction missed30:18
Infamous 51%King Of Kings 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by King Of Kings in 37:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 51%
Series resultKing Of Kings 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3