Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Южная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Lavaloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Gyrocopter
Lumière · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
Sacred · 7 games
Marssignature
Sacred · 7 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Michael · 6 games
Miranasignature
Michael · 6 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Silencer
Accel · 5 games
Tinyoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Lava
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
425 picks · 303 bans
Mars
395 picks · 577 bans
Queen of Pain
324 picks · 376 bans
Weaver
323 picks · 737 bans
Snapfire
318 picks · 177 bans
Kunkka
249 picks · 441 bans
Spirit Breaker
242 picks · 347 bans
Disruptor
237 picks · 163 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:16
Infamous 69%Lava 31%
The model gave 69% on Infamous — the game was taken by Lava in 32:15.
Game 2prediction missed37:11
Infamous 69%Lava 31%
The model gave 69% on Infamous — the game was taken by Lava in 26:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 69%
Series resultInfamous 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2