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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 2. Южная Америка. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Mad Kingswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Mirana
Miranasignature
Nuages · 23 games
74%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
Nuages · 18 games
39%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Oscar · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Jupiter · 10 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
mini-` · 9 games
78%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Hyko · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Hyko · 8 games
63%

Mad Kings

Rubick
Rubick
Gardick · 19 games
47%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Gardick · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Elmisho · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Gardick · 15 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
4nalog · 14 games
71%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
79%
Broodmother
Broodmothersignature
Vitaly · 12 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
4nalog · 12 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
1001 picks · 688 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
654 picks · 479 bans
52%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
601 picks · 959 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
553 picks · 432 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
529 picks · 360 bans
45%
Disruptor
Disruptor
521 picks · 376 bans
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
517 picks · 1184 bans
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
500 picks · 375 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Mad Kings
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:20
Infamous 45%Mad Kings 55%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 29:59.
Game 2prediction correct30:24
Infamous 45%Mad Kings 55%
The model gave 55% on Mad Kings — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 35:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteMad Kings · 55%
Series resultMad Kings 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2