PGL Wallachia Season 3. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:1series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Mmotisloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 6 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
S1RENM · 3 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 3 games
Clockwerkoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
DM · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 1 game
motis
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Clockwerk
412 picks · 534 bans
Muerta
404 picks · 333 bans
Tusk
367 picks · 386 bans
Lion
353 picks · 174 bans
Pangolier
353 picks · 581 bans
Batrider
349 picks · 430 bans
Beastmaster
336 picks · 791 bans
Gyrocopter
324 picks · 490 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% motis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% motis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Infamous 50%motis 50%
The model gave 50% on motis — the game was taken by Infamous.
Game 2prediction correct
Infamous 50%motis 50%
The model gave 50% on motis — the game was taken by motis.
Game 3prediction missed
Infamous 50%motis 50%
The model gave 50% on motis — the game was taken by Infamous.
Model check result
Model favoritemotis · 50%
Series resultInfamous 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3