PGL Wallachia 2024: Season 1. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pacific esportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Lifestealeroften banned
CarJua · 1 game
Linaoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Puckoften banned
S1RENM · 1 game
Sven
CarJua · 1 game
Pacific esports
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Spirit Breakeroften banned
Mingatte · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
386 picks · 627 bans
Lion
379 picks · 352 bans
Mars
371 picks · 591 bans
Techies
370 picks · 300 bans
Batrider
351 picks · 752 bans
Vengeful Spirit
349 picks · 345 bans
Tiny
339 picks · 368 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 200 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 33%
Hero pool strength51% Pacific esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:18
Infamous 58%Pacific esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 32:30.
Game 2prediction missed20:36
Infamous 58%Pacific esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by Pacific esports in 37:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 58%
Series resultPacific esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2