The International 2025. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
SXSustancia Xloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Beastmasteroften banned
Hermit · 13 games
Ember Spiritsignature
S1RENM · 8 games
Tinyoften banned
S1RENM · 8 games
Ogre Magi
JimmyCoff666 · 6 games
Queen of Painoften banned
S1RENM · 6 games
Ursaoften banned
DM · 6 games
Clockwerk
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
JimmyCoff666 · 5 games
Sustancia X
Bristlebackoften banned
drakesh1t · 2 games
Clockwerk
555k · 2 games
Tinyoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 2 games
Zeus
Pamplona · 2 games
Bounty Hunter
Pamplona · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pamplona · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ñengoflow KELOKE · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
483 picks · 447 bans
Tiny
475 picks · 559 bans
Ringmaster
446 picks · 227 bans
Terrorblade
350 picks · 689 bans
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 469 bans
Ancient Apparition
303 picks · 701 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 248 bans
Windranger
291 picks · 88 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 57%
Hero pool strength54% Infamous
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:28
Infamous 56%Sustancia X 44%
The model gave 56% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterJP
Silencer555k
Shadow FiendAlone
TuskPamplona
UndyingCHAAANNN
Shadow Shamansl4d1n-
Game 2prediction missed20:35
Infamous 52%Sustancia X 48%
The model gave 52% on Infamous — the game was taken by Sustancia X in 38:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sand KingAlone
PhoenixPamplona
TinyJP
Shadow Shaman555k
Nature's Prophetsl4d1n-
ClockwerkCHAAANNN
Game 3prediction correct36:8
Infamous 54%Sustancia X 46%
The model gave 54% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 32:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaJP
Silencer555k
SniperAlone
TuskPamplona
Marcisl4d1n-
OracleCHAAANNN
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 59%
Series resultInfamous 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3