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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Unknownwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Mars
Marsoften banned
ILICH- · 4 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
Arms · 2 games
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Yor · 2 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
PiPi · 2 games
0%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Pamplona · 2 games
50%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Arms · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Pamplona · 2 games
50%

Team Unknown

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Wij · 3 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 3 games
33%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Wij · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Yadomi · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 2 games
100%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
141 picks · 258 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
141 picks · 325 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
124 picks · 109 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
123 picks · 178 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
113 picks · 120 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
95 picks · 166 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
91 picks · 326 bans
61%
Rubick
Rubick
90 picks · 46 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 62%
Hero pool strength52% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Infamous 51%Team Unknown 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by Team Unknown.
Game 2prediction missed32:26
Infamous 51%Team Unknown 49%
The model gave 51% on Infamous — the game was taken by Team Unknown in 34:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 51%
Series resultTeam Unknown 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2