The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamouswin 2:0series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Tempestloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infamous
Bane
Prada · 11 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 11 games
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 8 games
Rubick
Genek · 7 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
Tidehunter
Mariano · 6 games
Tiny
Rises · 6 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
Tempest
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
736 picks · 572 bans
Puck
509 picks · 1029 bans
Dawnbreaker
485 picks · 643 bans
Marci
456 picks · 802 bans
Winter Wyvern
376 picks · 418 bans
Snapfire
333 picks · 164 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 390 bans
Razor
308 picks · 590 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 53%
Hero pool strength52% Tempest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:25
Infamous 71%Tempest 29%
The model gave 71% on Infamous — the game was taken by Tempest in 41:40.
Game 2prediction missed13:37
Infamous 71%Tempest 29%
The model gave 71% on Infamous — the game was taken by Tempest in 30:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 71%
Series resultInfamous 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2