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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 1:2
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 9 games
44%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
sl4d1n- · 6 games
83%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Oscar · 5 games
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Mjz · 4 games
0%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageoften banned
Genek · 4 games
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Prada · 3 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
sl4d1n- · 3 games
67%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 22 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
DarkMago · 18 games
72%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 15 games
73%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 15 games
53%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 12 games
58%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
361 picks · 344 bans
56%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 328 bans
49%
Mirana
Mirana
263 picks · 254 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
260 picks · 196 bans
60%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
202 picks · 144 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
181 picks · 106 bans
48%
Pangolier
Pangolier
178 picks · 498 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
174 picks · 459 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 47%
Hero pool strength55% Thunder Awaken
Head-to-head2 – 3
Model total67% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:27
Infamous 33%Thunder Awaken 67%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 46:20.
Game 2prediction correct14:42
Infamous 33%Thunder Awaken 67%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:49.
Game 3prediction correct28:32
Infamous 33%Thunder Awaken 67%
The model gave 67% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 52:37.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 67%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3