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The International 2022: Last Chance · BO2
result vs prediction
Infamousloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infamous

Bane
Bane
Prada · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Mariano · 8 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 7 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
Genek · 7 games
57%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Mariano · 6 games
17%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
20%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Genek · 5 games
60%

Xtreme Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
Paparazi · 9 games
78%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ELeVeN · 9 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
ELeVeN · 8 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Pyw · 8 games
63%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
lou · 8 games
38%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Paparazi · 8 games
38%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Pyw · 8 games
38%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
lou · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
548 picks · 424 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
458 picks · 660 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
332 picks · 754 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
330 picks · 452 bans
44%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
299 picks · 493 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
290 picks · 363 bans
55%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 832 bans
53%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 160 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Xtreme Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct22:43
Infamous 37%Xtreme Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 49:45.
Game 2prediction correct33:18
Infamous 37%Xtreme Gaming 63%
The model gave 63% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 48:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteXtreme Gaming · 63%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2