DreamLeague Season 23 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AcatSukiloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Doomoften banned
Oscar · 3 games
Linaoften banned
PiPi · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 3 games
Rubick
Genek · 3 games
Techies
Demon · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Oscar · 2 games
Disruptor
Mjz · 2 games
AcatSuki
Mirana
Kiri · 4 games
Sven
NeKo · 3 games
Tinyoften banned
Kiri · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Prada · 2 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Prada · 2 games
Gyrocopter
Prada · 2 games
Lifestealeroften banned
NeKo · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Robo-Z · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Centaur Warrunner
400 picks · 652 bans
Lion
385 picks · 356 bans
Mars
383 picks · 615 bans
Techies
378 picks · 307 bans
Batrider
360 picks · 786 bans
Tiny
354 picks · 408 bans
Vengeful Spirit
352 picks · 353 bans
Hoodwink
335 picks · 202 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% AcatSuki
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total64% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:11
Infinity Esports 57%AcatSuki 43%
The model gave 57% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 29:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos KnightParker
LunaNeKo
LeshracPiPi
Queen of PainRobo-Z
BrewmasterOscar
Centaur WarrunnerAdrx
GyrocopterDemon
SnapfireKiri
GrimstrokeYadomi
Vengeful SpiritPrada
Game 2prediction correct32:24
Infinity Esports 57%AcatSuki 43%
The model gave 57% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 31:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LinaParker
SvenNeKo
Void SpiritPiPi
Keeper of the LightRobo-Z
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
TinyAdrx
Ogre MagiYadomi
BatriderPrada
GrimstrokeDemon
MiranaKiri
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 64%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2