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ESL One Bangkok 2024. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fusionwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Disruptor
Disruptor
Panda · 11 games
45%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Kiri · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
ILICH- · 8 games
38%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Gardick · 7 games
71%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Costabile · 7 games
71%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Yor · 7 games
57%
Techies
Techies
Hyko · 7 games
43%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
PiPi · 6 games
0%

Fusion

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Michael · 6 games
17%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Michael · 5 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Prada · 4 games
25%
Sven
Sven
Wits · 4 games
25%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Wits · 4 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Wits · 4 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Prada · 3 games
67%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Michael · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
441 picks · 589 bans
51%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
380 picks · 399 bans
52%
Luna
Luna
327 picks · 393 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
327 picks · 461 bans
50%
Enchantress
Enchantress
305 picks · 586 bans
52%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
291 picks · 156 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
278 picks · 329 bans
53%
Sand King
Sand King
263 picks · 780 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 60%
Hero pool strength58% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:9
Infinity Esports 60%Fusion 40%
The model gave 60% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaCostabile
51% · 89 games42% · 94 games
TerrorbladeMnz
Terrorblade
Doom
DoomFCR
53% · 183 games54% · 196 games
Primal BeastFrank
Primal Beast
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritPiPi
49% · 184 games58% · 43 games
EarthshakerLeostyle
Earthshaker
Pugna
PugnaStingeR
52% · 146 games46% · 169 games
PhoenixPrada
Phoenix
45% · 100 games
MuertaMichael
Muerta
Game 2prediction missed28:31
Infinity Esports 63%Fusion 37%
The model gave 63% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Fusion in 50:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCostabile
59% · 159 games47% · 222 games
Dragon KnightMnz
Dragon Knight
Sand King
Sand KingPiPi
52% · 129 games44% · 99 games
BristlebackFrank
Bristleback
Underlord
UnderlordFCR
56% · 63 games47% · 68 games
Queen of PainLeostyle
Queen of Pain
Enchantress
EnchantressStingeR
52% · 271 game41% · 89 games
PugnaPrada
Pugna
46% · 144 games
Dark WillowMichael
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed14:41
Infinity Esports 61%Fusion 39%
The model gave 61% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Fusion in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCostabile
50% · 113 games53% · 92 games
AlchemistMnz
Alchemist
Sniper
SniperPiPi
41% · 102 games52% · 72 games
BristlebackFrank
Bristleback
Primal Beast
Primal BeastFCR
48% · 225 games50% · 137 games
PuckLeostyle
Puck
Elder Titan
Elder TitanStingeR
58% · 66 games49% · 185 games
BatriderMichael
Batrider
57% · 20 games
Ogre MagiPrada
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 72%
Series resultFusion 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3