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Elite League Season 2 - Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Leviatanloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Lina
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 6 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Oscar · 6 games
83%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Yadomi · 6 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
67%
Techies
Techies
Demon · 6 games
17%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
PiPi · 5 games
60%
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 5 games
60%

Leviatan

Dark Willow
Dark Willowoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 6 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Xepher · 6 games
83%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Mnz · 6 games
50%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
60%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
80%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
419 picks · 613 bans
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
370 picks · 387 bans
51%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
366 picks · 140 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
360 picks · 468 bans
55%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
321 picks · 342 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
318 picks · 579 bans
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
313 picks · 645 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
312 picks · 158 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 56%
Hero pool strength54% Leviatan
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total59% Leviatan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed37:29
Infinity Esports 43%Leviatan 57%
The model gave 57% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 42:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverLumière
55% · 147 games51% · 100 games
Storm SpiritStojkov
Storm Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackFCR
46% · 36 gameslittle data
RikiMnz
Riki
Dazzle
DazzlePiPi
58% · 23 games51% · 135 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Marci
MarciHyko
41% · 52 games48% · 182 games
RubickXepher
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkGardick
54% · 159 games
Game 2prediction correct20:25
Infinity Esports 44%Leviatan 56%
The model gave 56% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Leviatan in 36:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenLumière
48% · 109 games48% · 84 games
Chaos KnightMnz
Chaos Knight
Tiny
TinyPiPi
53% · 189 games45% · 131 game
RazorStojkov
Razor
Underlord
UnderlordFCR
49% · 47 games60% · 142 games
Brewmasterkpii
Brewmaster
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHyko
45% · 90 games54% · 105 games
WeaverXepher
Weaver
Oracle
OracleGardick
44% · 27 games
Game 3prediction missed33:17
Infinity Esports 44%Leviatan 56%
The model gave 56% on Leviatan — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 41:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerPiPi
49% · 183 games54% · 199 games
LifestealerMnz
Lifestealer
Pudge
PudgeLumière
55% · 67 games51% · 132 games
Dark Seerkpii
Dark Seer
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFCR
48% · 194 games49% · 302 games
TinyStojkov
Tiny
Techies
TechiesHyko
44% · 253 games50% · 370 games
RubickXepher
Rubick
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenGardick
49% · 306 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLeviatan · 59%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3