Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportswin 2:0series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Mad Kingsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
No games played over 6 months.
Mad Kings
Crystal Maiden
Prada · 3 games
Marsoften banned
Sacred · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
NaoG · 3 games
Phoenixoften banned
Tano · 3 games
Snapfire
Prada · 3 games
Tusk
Sacred · 2 games
Abaddonoften banned
Prada · 1 game
Beastmasteroften banned
Sacred · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
79 picks · 187 bans
Mars
78 picks · 164 bans
Earth Spirit
68 picks · 58 bans
Void Spirit
62 picks · 115 bans
Rubick
54 picks · 29 bans
Undying
52 picks · 73 bans
Monkey King
50 picks · 115 bans
Phoenix
50 picks · 67 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:20
Infinity Esports 51%Mad Kings 49%
The model gave 51% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 39:10.
Game 2prediction missed40:16
Infinity Esports 51%Mad Kings 49%
The model gave 51% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Mad Kings in 29:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 51%
Series resultInfinity Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2