Riyadh Masters 2024. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 1:2series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 1:2
O+Orrai + 4win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Infinity Esports
Linaoften banned
Parker · 7 games
Brewmastersignature
Oscar · 6 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Oscar · 6 games
Grimstrokesignature
Yadomi · 6 games
Techies
Demon · 6 games
Ogre Magi
Yadomi · 5 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Parker · 5 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Oscar · 4 games
Orrai + 4
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Crystal Maiden
466 picks · 220 bans
Tiny
414 picks · 650 bans
Centaur Warrunner
399 picks · 563 bans
Gyrocopter
399 picks · 368 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 707 bans
Rubick
369 picks · 160 bans
Pangolier
354 picks · 754 bans
Shadow Demon
332 picks · 939 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Orrai + 4
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Infinity Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:30
Infinity Esports 64%Orrai + 4 36%
The model gave 64% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Orrai + 4 in 30:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaLumière
DazzleSmAsH
HoodwinkGenek
Primal BeastTaiLung
OracleGardick
GrimstrokeYadomi
Game 2prediction correct28:20
Infinity Esports 64%Orrai + 4 36%
The model gave 64% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Infinity Esports in 49:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerLumière
AxeSmAsH
WeaverGenek
Storm SpiritTaiLung
OracleGardick
DisruptorYadomi
Game 3prediction missed11:28
Infinity Esports 64%Orrai + 4 36%
The model gave 64% on Infinity Esports — the game was taken by Orrai + 4 in 29:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordLumière
BrewmasterSmAsH
Dark WillowGenek
SlardarTaiLung
DisruptorGardick
ClockwerkYadomi
Model check result
Model favoriteInfinity Esports · 76%
Series resultOrrai + 4 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3