?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Южная Америка. Первый дивизион · BO1
result vs prediction
Infinity Esportsloss 0:1
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Thunder Awakenwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Infinity Esports

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 7 games
43%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Nuages · 7 games
43%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
mini-` · 7 games
71%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Genek · 6 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Jupiter · 6 games
67%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Nuages · 6 games
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Mr.Jeans · 5 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Hyko · 5 games
80%

Thunder Awaken

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 17 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
DarkMago · 17 games
59%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Panda · 16 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Sacred · 14 games
50%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakersignature
Sacred · 13 games
69%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 13 games
46%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Panda · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
Tusk
402 picks · 401 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
375 picks · 368 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
363 picks · 251 bans
56%
Mirana
Mirana
292 picks · 300 bans
52%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
239 picks · 288 bans
55%
Snapfire
Snapfire
228 picks · 120 bans
48%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
208 picks · 146 bans
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
197 picks · 550 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 42%
Hero pool strength55% Infinity Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total60% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Infinity Esports 40%Thunder Awaken 60%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 60%
Series resultThunder Awaken 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1