DreamLeague Season 29. Открытые отборочные · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:1series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:1
ALIS VENTORUSwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Tusk
Fernans · 25 games
Warlock
Se · 25 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 22 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 21 game
Tiny
Jing · 19 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 18 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 17 games
ALIS VENTORUS
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
646 picks · 724 bans
Tiny
522 picks · 479 bans
Tusk
491 picks · 395 bans
Warlock
437 picks · 295 bans
Phoenix
400 picks · 337 bans
Shadow Demon
400 picks · 1094 bans
Mars
383 picks · 570 bans
Puck
383 picks · 803 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 40%
Hero pool strength52% ALIS VENTORUS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Inner Circle 70%ALIS VENTORUS 30%
The model gave 70% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by ALIS VENTORUS.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 70%
Series resultALIS VENTORUS 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1