BLAST Slam IX. Открытые квалификации · BO1
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 1:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:0
HHellNight-loss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
Tusk
Fernans · 14 games
Banesignature
Se · 13 games
Dark Willowsignature
Fernans · 13 games
Kezoften banned
423 · 13 games
Underlordoften banned
Norma · 12 games
Doomsignature
rubikon155 · 11 games
Winter Wyvern
Se · 10 games
HellNight-
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
482 picks · 317 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 502 bans
Clockwerk
317 picks · 386 bans
Bane
314 picks · 435 bans
Shadow Fiend
301 picks · 624 bans
Mirana
290 picks · 106 bans
Dark Willow
282 picks · 117 bans
Centaur Warrunner
276 picks · 289 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Inner Circle 79%HellNight- 21%
The model gave 79% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 79%
Series resultInner Circle 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1