European Pro League Season 36 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 22 games
Tusk
Fernans · 20 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 19 games
Tiny
Jing · 19 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 18 games
Puckoften banned
niche · 17 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 15 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
Ilbirs eSports
Marsoften banned
Norma · 7 games
Beastmasteroften banned
egx · 6 games
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Miyaoo · 4 games
Jakirooften banned
Undyne_ · 4 games
Primal Beast
Norma · 4 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
rubikon155 · 4 games
Tiny
xsvampire · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
636 picks · 639 bans
Tiny
508 picks · 423 bans
Tusk
483 picks · 407 bans
Phoenix
435 picks · 442 bans
Warlock
427 picks · 279 bans
Hoodwink
399 picks · 187 bans
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1067 bans
Puck
388 picks · 849 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Inner Circle
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:39
Inner Circle 54%Ilbirs eSports 46%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 58:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of PainStojkov
Monkey Kingniche
Tiny423
Windrangerrubikon155
Viperlaise
UndyingfortniteMan
RubickFernans
DazzleUndyne_
DisruptorSe
Spirit BreakerPonlo
Game 2prediction missed9:29
Inner Circle 56%Ilbirs eSports 44%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 31:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Storm SpiritStojkov
Tinyrubikon155
Kez423
Keeper of the Lightniche
Underlordlaise
DawnbreakerfortniteMan
HoodwinkFernans
TechiesPonlo
EnchantressSe
TuskUndyne_
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 58%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2