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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MODUSwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 22 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
50%

MODUS

Rubick
Rubick
mrls · 8 games
25%
Tiny
Tiny
bottega · 8 games
25%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
elmo^^ · 7 games
43%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
mrls · 7 games
43%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 6 games
33%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
prblms · 5 games
60%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
mrls · 5 games
80%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
bottega · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
513 picks · 291 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
482 picks · 568 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
440 picks · 351 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
434 picks · 340 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
372 picks · 323 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
348 picks · 836 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 848 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
344 picks · 183 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 38%
Hero pool strength52% Inner Circle
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total60% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:19
Inner Circle 55%MODUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 49:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
45% · 315 games49% · 278 games
Muertabottega
Muerta
Tiny
Tiny423
50% · 421 game50% · 436 games
Storm SpiritMirele
Storm Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSe
53% · 234 games49% · 328 games
Tidehunterelmo^^
Tidehunter
Slardar
Slardarlaise
51% · 337 games52% · 284 games
Snapfireprblms
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickFernans
52% · 196 games49% · 177 games
Clockwerkkasane
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed13:24
Inner Circle 54%MODUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by MODUS in 35:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey King423
47% · 205 games54% · 153 games
Windrangerbottega
Windranger
Kez
KezStojkov
47% · 149 games49% · 275 games
PuckMirele
Puck
Underlord
Underlordlaise
47% · 211 games56% · 168 games
Slardarelmo^^
Slardar
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernSe
55% · 39 games52% · 118 games
Snapfirekasane
Snapfire
Rubick
RubickFernans
49% · 167 games46% · 57 games
Techiesprblms
Techies
Game 3prediction missed7:23
Inner Circle 56%MODUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by MODUS in 29:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Void423
54% · 120 games45% · 109 games
Lunabottega
Luna
Slardar
Slardarlaise
59% · 225 games46% · 420 games
Void SpiritMirele
Void Spirit
Puck
PuckStojkov
51% · 493 games50% · 303 games
Batriderelmo^^
Batrider
Rubick
RubickFernans
51% · 146 games47% · 60 games
Techieskasane
Techies
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeSe
45% · 57 games51% · 149 games
Clockwerkprblms
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 60%
Series resultMODUS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3