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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
39%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
45%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 21 game
38%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 20 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
24%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Se · 16 games
31%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
27%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
53%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 24 games
50%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 22 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 21 game
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 19 games
53%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 16 games
19%
Puck
Puckoften banned
SumaiL · 16 games
44%
Pugna
Pugna
GH · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
OmaR · 14 games
36%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
600 picks · 938 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
540 picks · 428 bans
46%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
491 picks · 643 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
486 picks · 653 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
439 picks · 948 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
393 picks · 654 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 528 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
379 picks · 233 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total78% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed30:20
Inner Circle 36%Nigma Galaxy 64%
The model gave 64% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 56:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin423
52% · 211 games48% · 522 games
Dragon Knightrincyq
Dragon Knight
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritniche
53% · 404 games55% · 84 games
RazorSumaiL
Razor
Slardar
Slardarlaise
50% · 268 games52% · 350 games
TidehunterNo!ob
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinyJing
47% · 508 games49% · 696 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockSe
46% · 481 game50% · 220 games
ClockwerkOmaR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction correct5:36
Inner Circle 34%Nigma Galaxy 66%
The model gave 66% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 35:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
49% · 130 games52% · 249 games
Abaddonrincyq
Abaddon
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightniche
48% · 305 games48% · 56 games
RazorNo!ob
Razor
Axe
Axelaise
46% · 187 games57% · 326 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJing
43% · 99 games48% · 124 games
DazzleGH
Dazzle
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSe
53% · 106 games56% · 72 games
Spirit BreakerOmaR
Spirit Breaker
Game 3prediction missed29:12
Inner Circle 33%Nigma Galaxy 67%
The model gave 67% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 35:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphling423
49% · 168 games55% · 594 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Puck
Puckniche
48% · 274 games48% · 453 games
Terrorbladerincyq
Terrorblade
Mars
Marslaise
46% · 209 games55% · 130 games
ViperNo!ob
Viper
Tiny
TinyJing
46% · 427 games52% · 234 games
PhoenixGH
Phoenix
Jakiro
JakiroSe
46% · 397 games58% · 64 games
LargoOmaR
Largo
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 78%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3