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CCT Season 2 Series 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Passion UAloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 11 games
27%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 10 games
30%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 8 games
25%
Warlock
Warlock
flacko · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
flacko · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Fernans · 6 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 6 games
17%
Sven
Svenoften banned
yowaai · 6 games
33%

Passion UA

Tiny
Tinysignature
QBFY · 34 games
68%
Doom
Doomsignature
Crystallize · 22 games
64%
Snapfire
Snapfire
QBFY · 22 games
55%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moonlight · 21 game
57%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendsignature
Moonlight · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Moonlight · 18 games
83%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
QBFY · 17 games
41%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
Snapfire
526 picks · 269 bans
56%
Disruptor
Disruptor
483 picks · 490 bans
53%
Puck
Puck
369 picks · 1004 bans
53%
Pugna
Pugna
329 picks · 378 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
309 picks · 147 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
306 picks · 520 bans
53%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
304 picks · 498 bans
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
302 picks · 148 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 56%
Hero pool strength60% Passion UA
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total58% Passion UA
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:38
Inner Circle 44%Passion UA 56%
The model gave 56% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Passion UA in 56:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
Svenyowaai
47% · 156 games47% · 96 games
Troll WarlordCrystallize
Troll Warlord
Puck
PuckPanda
53% · 251 game50% · 310 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Beastmaster
BeastmasterNorma
52% · 267 games55% · 209 games
Sand KingMoonlight
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
46% · 161 game50% · 213 games
Silencerkreker
Silencer
Warlock
Warlockflacko
50% · 226 games49% · 233 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 2prediction missed29:19
Inner Circle 45%Passion UA 55%
The model gave 55% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusayowaai
46% · 257 games56% · 395 games
BristlebackBatyuk
Bristleback
Beastmaster
BeastmasterPanda
46% · 395 games52% · 361 game
Dragon KnightCrystallize
Dragon Knight
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
48% · 218 games50% · 238 games
Sand KingMoonlight
Sand King
Hoodwink
HoodwinkFernans
39% · 236 games61% · 176 games
Chenkreker
Chen
Phoenix
Phoenixflacko
48% · 283 games55% · 219 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed40:23
Inner Circle 47%Passion UA 53%
The model gave 53% on Passion UA — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 40:46.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Anti-Mage
Anti-Mageyowaai
55% · 55 games50% · 167 games
MarsBatyuk
Mars
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainPanda
48% · 212 games48% · 293 games
Storm SpiritMoonlight
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerNorma
51% · 126 games50% · 189 games
TerrorbladeCrystallize
Terrorblade
Tusk
TuskFernans
53% · 431 game43% · 178 games
Jakirokreker
Jakiro
Bane
Baneflacko
59% · 146 games42% · 143 games
RingmasterQBFY
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoritePassion UA · 58%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3