DreamLeague Division 2 Season 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Peru Rejectswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 15 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 12 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 12 games
Tusk
Fernans · 11 games
Warlock
flacko · 11 games
Snapfire
Fernans · 10 games
Disruptoroften banned
Fernans · 9 games
Jakiro
flacko · 7 games
Peru Rejects
Snapfiresignature
Michael · 11 games
Marsoften banned
DarkMago · 8 games
Batrideroften banned
Michael · 7 games
Bristlebackoften banned
payk · 7 games
Disruptoroften banned
Matthew · 7 games
Abaddonoften banned
payk · 6 games
Earthshakeroften banned
DarkMago · 6 games
Ember Spiritsignature
DarkMago · 6 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Snapfire
621 picks · 308 bans
Disruptor
537 picks · 545 bans
Puck
397 picks · 1112 bans
Hoodwink
378 picks · 197 bans
Mars
358 picks · 608 bans
Pugna
352 picks · 392 bans
Warlock
349 picks · 159 bans
Tusk
343 picks · 269 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 59%
Hero pool strength59% Peru Rejects
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% Peru Rejects
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:29
Inner Circle 37%Peru Rejects 63%
The model gave 63% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 34:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's ProphetPanda
Queen of PainDarkMago
Svenyowaai
Dragon Knightpayk
MagnusNorma
TidehunterILICH-
BatriderFernans
EnchantressMichael
Disruptorflacko
TuskMatthew
Game 2prediction correct33:38
Inner Circle 35%Peru Rejects 65%
The model gave 65% on Peru Rejects — the game was taken by Peru Rejects in 50:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladeyowaai
Ursapayk
PuckPanda
TimbersawILICH-
BatriderNorma
TinyDarkMago
Snapfireflacko
EnchantressMichael
TuskFernans
Shadow ShamanMatthew
Model check result
Model favoritePeru Rejects · 71%
Series resultPeru Rejects 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2