PGL Wallachia Season 7. Открытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Rune Eaterswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
Warlock
flacko · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
423 · 13 games
Rune Eaters
Ringmastersignature
ani-san · 53 games
Jakirooften banned
monodrama · 45 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Ethereal · 39 games
Void Spirit
Ethereal · 33 games
Ogre Magisignature
monodrama · 28 games
Tinyoften banned
ani-san · 28 games
Dawnbreaker
Ankou · 26 games
Slardarsignature
Ankou · 26 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
542 picks · 848 bans
Tusk
514 picks · 369 bans
Dragon Knight
474 picks · 641 bans
Centaur Warrunner
456 picks · 585 bans
Shadow Demon
393 picks · 774 bans
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 582 bans
Ember Spirit
345 picks · 550 bans
Mars
341 picks · 481 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 65%
Hero pool strength59% Rune Eaters
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total59% Rune Eaters
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:26
Inner Circle 41%Rune Eaters 59%
The model gave 59% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 30:48.
Game 2prediction correct32:12
Inner Circle 41%Rune Eaters 59%
The model gave 59% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 32:47.
Game 3prediction correct31:25
Inner Circle 41%Rune Eaters 59%
The model gave 59% on Rune Eaters — the game was taken by Rune Eaters in 39:29.
Model check result
Model favoriteRune Eaters · 59%
Series resultRune Eaters 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3