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European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Lynxwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
55%
Warlock
Warlock
Se · 22 games
41%
Tiny
Tiny
Jing · 21 game
52%
Tusk
Tusk
Daze · 20 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
41%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 17 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
47%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
50%

Team Lynx

Underlord
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 27 games
63%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 24 games
67%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 22 games
59%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
QBFY · 21 game
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 21 game
38%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
kreker · 20 games
65%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
mellojul · 20 games
65%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
mellojul · 20 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
512 picks · 281 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 567 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
441 picks · 352 bans
49%
Jakiro
Jakiro
439 picks · 345 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
375 picks · 326 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
347 picks · 838 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
345 picks · 843 bans
54%
Rubick
Rubick
338 picks · 177 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 63%
Hero pool strength56% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 6
Model total71% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Inner Circle 29%Team Lynx 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Inner Circle.
Game 2prediction correct
Inner Circle 29%Team Lynx 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Game 3prediction correct
Inner Circle 29%Team Lynx 71%
The model gave 71% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 71%
Series resultTeam Lynx 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3