European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Nemesisloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
Warlock
Se · 22 games
Tiny
Jing · 20 games
Tusk
Daze · 18 games
Jakiro
Se · 17 games
Puckoften banned
Supream^ · 16 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
niche · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 14 games
Team Nemesis
Tinysignature
Mac · 20 games
Slardaroften banned
Jabz · 18 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 17 games
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 15 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 15 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 14 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
511 picks · 275 bans
Phoenix
482 picks · 563 bans
Jakiro
442 picks · 346 bans
Tiny
442 picks · 352 bans
Tusk
376 picks · 326 bans
Beastmaster
348 picks · 835 bans
Puck
344 picks · 839 bans
Rubick
333 picks · 176 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 42%
Hero pool strength52% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:28
Inner Circle 47%Team Nemesis 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker423
Terrorbladerubikon155
PuckStojkov
Ember Spirit4nalog
Bristlebacklaise
PangolierJabz
BaneSe
Keeper of the LightLelis
TuskFernans
EnchantressYamSun
Game 2prediction missed46:27
Inner Circle 47%Team Nemesis 53%
The model gave 53% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 53:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
InvokerStojkov
TimbersawJabz
Tiny423
Windrangerrubikon155
Pangolierlaise
Primal Beast4nalog
VenomancerSe
EnchantressYamSun
TuskFernans
TechiesLelis
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 53%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2