Inner Circle vs Team Shpilit — prediction CSS 2 8 · Dota 2

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CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3

result vs prediction

Inner Circleloss 1:2

series probability

71%29%

probability at match start · final 1:2

Team Shpilitwin 2:1

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink

Fernans · 30 games

47%

Tusk

Fernans · 30 games

43%

Warlock

Se · 28 games

39%

Marsoften banned

Norma · 26 games

42%

Jakirooften banned

Se · 23 games

39%

Puckoften banned

niche · 21 game

38%

Beastmasteroften banned

niche · 19 games

37%

Centaur Warrunneroften banned

Norma · 19 games

21%

Team Shpilit

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Jakiro

596 picks · 877 bans

50%

Tiny

496 picks · 527 bans

48%

Tusk

457 picks · 411 bans

47%

Warlock

437 picks · 300 bans

49%

Shadow Demon

407 picks · 1038 bans

54%

Ember Spirit

392 picks · 669 bans

60%

Mars

382 picks · 578 bans

48%

Centaur Warrunner

374 picks · 563 bans

56%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%

Hero pool strength54% Team Shpilit

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total71% Inner Circle

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed20:25

Inner Circle 60%Team Shpilit 40%

The model gave 60% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Shpilit in 38:05.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo