CCT Season 2 Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Shpilitwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Hoodwink
Fernans · 33 games
Tusk
Fernans · 31 game
Warlock
Se · 31 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 27 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 25 games
Puckoften banned
niche · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 19 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 19 games
Team Shpilit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ainkrad · 2 games
Jakirooften banned
Solo · 2 games
Nyx Assassin
Kyzko · 2 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Solo · 2 games
Tusk
Kyzko · 2 games
Void Spirit
Ainkrad · 2 games
Windrangeroften banned
zuyzyan · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Zarich · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
588 picks · 850 bans
Tiny
509 picks · 538 bans
Tusk
441 picks · 401 bans
Warlock
429 picks · 297 bans
Shadow Demon
395 picks · 1030 bans
Ember Spirit
390 picks · 664 bans
Mars
378 picks · 579 bans
Centaur Warrunner
355 picks · 537 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 50%
Hero pool strength52% Team Shpilit
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:32
Inner Circle 56%Team Shpilit 44%
The model gave 56% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Shpilit in 40:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter423
TimbersawZarich
PuckStojkov
Muertazuyzyan
Pangolierlaise
TinyAinkrad
HoodwinkFernans
MarciKyzko
WarlockSe
Shadow DemonSolo
Game 2prediction missed43:38
Inner Circle 55%Team Shpilit 45%
The model gave 55% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Shpilit in 1:04:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling423
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Storm SpiritStojkov
TimbersawZarich
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
Ursazuyzyan
WarlockSe
Nyx AssassinKyzko
Shadow DemonFernans
JakiroSolo
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 63%
Series resultTeam Shpilit 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2