European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circleloss 1:2series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Tusk
Fernans · 23 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 22 games
Warlock
flacko · 21 game
Marsoften banned
Norma · 20 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 15 games
Jakirooften banned
flacko · 15 games
Disruptor
Fernans · 14 games
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 14 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 9 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Warlock
kyford · 9 games
Broodmotheroften banned
rubikon155 · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
597 picks · 931 bans
Tusk
541 picks · 422 bans
Centaur Warrunner
495 picks · 640 bans
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
437 picks · 940 bans
Ember Spirit
391 picks · 653 bans
Mars
385 picks · 530 bans
Warlock
378 picks · 232 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 38%
Hero pool strength53% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total77% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:36
Inner Circle 66%Team Spirit Academy 34%
The model gave 66% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 45:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritniche
Razorrubikon155
Timbersawlaise
Slark86
Meepo423
Kunkkakae
TinyJing
Undyingkyford
JakiroSe
Dark WillowAidar
Game 2prediction correct46:27
Inner Circle 65%Team Spirit Academy 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 59:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spiritniche
Abaddonrubikon155
Kunkkalaise
Largo86
Dragon Knight423
Viperkae
Ancient ApparitionSe
GrimstrokeAidar
LionJing
Jakirokyford
Game 3prediction missed27:41
Inner Circle 65%Team Spirit Academy 35%
The model gave 65% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven423
Windrangerrubikon155
Storm Spiritniche
Puck86
Brewmasterlaise
Largokae
SnapfireJing
Undyingkyford
Witch DoctorSe
LionAidar
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 77%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3