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PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Tealoss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Inner Circle

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Fernans · 7 games
29%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Norma · 6 games
33%
Magnus
Magnus
Norma · 5 games
40%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
flacko · 5 games
20%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
yowaai · 5 games
20%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 4 games
25%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Fernans · 4 games
25%
Tusk
Tusk
Fernans · 4 games
50%

Team Tea

Snapfire
Snapfire
dEsire · 5 games
20%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
dEsire · 4 games
75%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Cloud · 4 games
50%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Worick · 4 games
75%
Slardar
Slardar
Cloud · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 3 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 3 games
0%
Muerta
Muerta
dEsire · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
Disruptor
431 picks · 398 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
406 picks · 206 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
349 picks · 899 bans
52%
Pugna
Pugna
320 picks · 365 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
286 picks · 140 bans
55%
Tusk
Tusk
283 picks · 227 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
276 picks · 673 bans
53%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 840 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team Tea
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total67% Team Tea
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:28
Inner Circle 40%Team Tea 60%
The model gave 60% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Team Tea in 55:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteryowaai
46% · 360 games57% · 209 games
Templar AssassinShigetsu
Templar Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of Paindualrazee
40% · 238 games50% · 373 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerNorma
51% · 192 games52% · 399 games
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
47% · 255 games50% · 203 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonFernans
49% · 242 games59% · 103 games
BanedEsire
Bane
Game 2prediction missed33:20
Inner Circle 44%Team Tea 56%
The model gave 56% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 41:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidyowaai
57% · 64 games40% · 134 games
SvenShigetsu
Sven
Lycan
LycanNorma
55% · 136 games50% · 119 games
InvokerWorick
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void Spiritdualrazee
52% · 153 games40% · 156 games
MarsCloud
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorFernans
54% · 249 games50% · 167 games
SnapfiredEsire
Snapfire
Jakiro
Jakiroflacko
57% · 127 games46% · 153 games
PugnaSoNNeikO
Pugna
Game 3prediction missed38:19
Inner Circle 41%Team Tea 59%
The model gave 59% on Team Tea — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 29:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
Alchemistyowaai
52% · 90 games52% · 68 games
Faceless VoidShigetsu
Faceless Void
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetdualrazee
47% · 126 games52% · 134 games
Earth SpiritWorick
Earth Spirit
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerNorma
46% · 203 games48% · 113 games
SlardarCloud
Slardar
Disruptor
Disruptorflacko
47% · 88 games58% · 150 games
ChenSoNNeikO
Chen
Tusk
TuskFernans
43% · 260 games54% · 302 games
MuertadEsire
Muerta
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tea · 67%
Series resultInner Circle 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3